“Who do you think should have the better, more productive off-season?” asks Baseball Digest Daily’s Bill Baer. “The World F™in Champions, or the September Choke Artists?” Moving into a new ballpark and trying desperately to appease an enraged fan base, I’d say the latter, while Baer muses that the Phillies “have had an embarrassingly low-key, settle-for-less kind of off-season under new GM Ruben Amaro.” (link swiped from Repoz and Baseball Think Factory)
Amaro declined to offer arbitration to Pat Burrell, a Type A free agent, because he believed he would accept the offer. Thus, the Phillies would have been forced to pay Burrell a 2009 salary likely in the $16-18 million range, more than they believed him to be worth. Instead, they went out and signed another Type A free agent, Raul Ibanez, for $31.5 million for three years including $6.5 million in 2009. At the cost of two first round draft picks the Phillies saved about $10 million. But 25% (and potentially 50% given incentives) of that then went to free agent Chan Ho Park, whose 2008 season was the first in which he finished with an ERA+ over 93 since 2001. And $6.5 million went into re-signing Jamie Moyer who is much more likely to put up Adam Eaton-type numbers than Cole Hamels-type numbers.
In signing Ibanez, Amaro essentially set the market for good-hitting, poor-defending outfielders like Burrell and Adam Dunn. However, if one is going to set the market by making the first splash, one usually wants to get the best player. Among the free agent corner outfielders, Ibanez is arguably out of the top-five. Considering that Adam Dunn is a Type A free agent who was not offered arbitration by the Arizona Diamondbacks, is consistently more productive offensively and comparably poor defensively, it makes no sense to sign Ibanez when you have Dunn available.
The New York Mets, pathetic disappointments the last two seasons, should have had to settle for Ibanez and Park. That Amaro, with his ineffective moves, willingly jumped out and screamed to the baseball world, œHey, we™ll settle for less. I don™t mind! shouldn™t settle well with the Philadelphia fan base.
Upon reading the full article, Baer does say “Granted, the Phillies’ purse strings are a bit tight because so many players are arbitration eligible: Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels, Jayson Werth, Ryan Madson, Shane Victorino, Greg Dobbs, Chad Durbin, and Joe Blanton”. So, that is his answer right there. Was Adam Dunn going to take a pay cut from the $13 million he received last year to play for what the Phillies got Ibanez for? No way. As far as the offseason moves, basically the Phillies are replacing Burrell with Ibanez, Chris Coste with Ronnie Paulino and Rudy Seanez with Chan Ho Park. Baers math is inconclusive as it only looks 1 year down the road. There was so much in that article that could be picked apart (and I am certainly not head of the Ruben Amaro Jr Appreciation Society) so as far as “settle well with the Philadelphia fan base” goes, this one is fine with the squad the Phillies will take into 2009
no one put a gun to Amaro’s head to bring back Moyer, though. As far as Adam Dunn taking a pay cut…yeah, you’d think not, right? But he’s still available weeks after the start of the silly season. Jason already suggested he’ll sign with Toronto, which I’m rooting for just because the introductory press conference will serve up a good photo.
I am all for the Moyer re-up as he had an excellent season in 2008 (199 IP 3.71 ERA 118 ERA+) and I honestly dont see him dropping off the map. For $6.5 million a season for the next two seasons I think the Phillies will get their moneys worth and at worst he will still put up decent 3rd/4th starter #s. The upside could be for him to continue to put up the 2nd starter #s he did in 2008. Its not like we have to worry about him losing his velocity. As far as Dunn, no doubt he isnt going to get as much money as he wanted, but if he ends up signing somewhere for the same amount of money ( or slightly more) than Ibanez did, I will reconsider my opinion and that Amaro indeed may have jumped the gun too quickly with the Ibanez signing.
I thought this was an especially amateurish and random piece for the blogosphere to highlight: just refried message board fodder, except the good parts were less nuanced than a Keith Law column and the bad parts were just bad (like the fantasy about giving up a throw-in so someone would pick up Eaton, when he’s already been available to anyone in baseball for $1 million).
I would have preferred Dunn to Ibanez myself, but anyone with any knowledge of how Dunn’s been portrayed by the Cincinnati media (as well as the Ricciardi stuff) knows he’d be a poor fit in Philadelphia and even more unappealing to the Phillies brass than he would be to the fans and media. He’s Burrell with more HRs, more Ks, and no World Series/franchise lifer goodwill.
Of course I wanted to keep Burrelll, and still think both (younger) players will end up signing for about the same as Ibanez got. I also hated not offering arb. but the Phillies proved to be correct with Moyer and the market certainly suggests their fear Burrell might just accept was not unfounded. I still think overpaying Burrell and keeping the Ibanez comp pick would have been better, then you can go out and get a new LF next year, but obviously the Phillies felt otherwise quite strongly.
I’m just mad we’ll not have a chance to read a mid-season Dallas Green quote about Dunn’s lack o’ fire.
Sorry for the late arrival, but I just noticed you guys highlighted my article, and felt I should respond/clarify my position regarding your criticisms.
Re: Dunn, paycuts: You’re talking $13 million to about $10 million. A $3 million drop-off given the current state of affairs with the economy wouldn’t be insulting to Dunn. And now that Burrell has signed with the Rays for two years and $16 million, a paycheck for $13 million seems but a fantasy for Dunn.
The Phillies aren’t replacing Coste with Paulino, per se. Coste will still be on the roster as things are right now, he’s just not going to be the #2 catcher. He’ll still be the first right-handed bat off the bench. Word was that the Orioles were interested in acquiring him but otherwise I haven’t heard anything else about him being moved.
Jamie Moyer will not have a good year next year, and I have rarely been so sure of something. Why do I feel this way? I went into detail here:
Don’t expect 2008 Moyer. His 3.71 ERA is much lower than his 4.32 FIP. That’s not surprising considering that the Phillies were the best defensive team in baseball (+74 according to John Dewan in The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2009). Can we expect the Phillies to be that good defensively in 2009? Don’t count on it. Using statistics from Dewan in the Annual, look at how much of a jump in defensive production occurs between 2007 and ‘08.
Jason, there was nothing outlandish about my claim that the Phillies should offer Eaton and a prospect to get rid of his contract. This type of move happens every year, and, in fact, the Mets are trying to do it with Luis Castillo. As we move closer to spring training and to the regular season, we’ll be more likely to see suitors who need warm bodies.
I don’t buy the claim that Dunn would be a bad fit for Philadelphia. They say this about everyone and every time the player’s personality ends up having zero effect. They even said it about Pat Burrell who ended up being able to handle it.